General Objective: The general objective (OG) of the proposal is to analyze the evolution of some of the main territorial problems in Ecuador (informal settlements, uncontrolled urban development, advance of the agrarian frontier and evolution of natural spaces) from a perspective of Climate Change to facilitate the design of territorial planning and risk management strategies and contribute to territorial resilience.
Specific objectives:
- Identify past and present land uses on the outskirts of the cities of Quito, Loja, Guayaquil and Cuenca (Ecuador) using Machine Learning (ML) methods to analyze the territorial dynamics in the study period and identify the factors associated with the processes. US exchange rate. This objective will be developed during the first 6 months of the project.
- Indicators:
- Preparation of geographic databases with informal settlements for the study areas and for each year of analysis and storage in the project Geoportal (M1). Note: only databases of informal settlements will be created because they do not exist as such in Ecuador and it is not possible to differentiate them from anthropic areas through an automatic classification process. The rest of the territorial problems can be identified through the classification of images and US analysis.
- Development, application and validation of an ML classification method for the identification of US in the study areas with support from external consulting (M2).
- Development of tests to verify the sustainability of the classification method developed using Sentinel-2 images with support from external consulting (M2).
- Identification and analysis of spatial patterns of US changes, as well as their associated factors (predictive variables). These factors and the classification results are stored in the project Geoportal in raster/vector format (M3).
- Means of verification:
- Vector layers with informal settlements for the study areas and for each year of analysis (Project Geoportal) (vector files) (M1).
- Satellite/aerial images used to identify USs, settlements and validation points ( CEDIA project repository) (M2).
- Raster layers with the classification result for each study area and year of analysis ( CEDIA project repository) (raster files) (M2).
- Report with the results of the validation of the US classification (more details in the description of T.1.5) (document) (M2).
- Report on sustainability of the classification method (document) (M2).
- Report with the change matrices and US change patterns identified in the different study areas (document) (M3).
- List and description of the factors associated with US changes identified by study area (document) and raster/vector layers associated with each one when possible ( CEDIA project repository) (raster/vector files) (M3).
- Indicators:
- Predict land uses in the different study areas under different Climate Change scenarios to identify vulnerable areas and resilient zones. This objective will be developed from the sixth to the ninth month of the project.
- Indicators:
- Evaluation of several algorithms for predicting US in the study areas taking into account different climate scenarios with support from external consulting. Based on the results, the one that offers greater reliability is selected (M4).
- Identification of the most vulnerable and most resilient areas by comparing US prediction results using different climate scenarios (M5).
- Inclusion of the classification method and the US prediction method in a QGIS plugin with external consulting support (M6).
- Means of verification:
- Raster layers with the US prediction result for each area and climate scenario (Project Geoportal) (raster files) (M4).
- Report with the quantitative results of each algorithm used and justification for the selection of the one that will finally be included in the plugin (document) (M4).
- Report identifying the most vulnerable and resilient areas (doc.) (M5).
- QGIS plugin developed with the US classification and prediction methodology (Laboratory version code) (M6).
- Developed plugin user manual (document) (M6).
- Indicators:
- Analyze territorial resilience and its integration into territorial and urban planning plans to improve the resilience of the most vulnerable areas. This objective will be developed from month nine to month twelve of the project.
- Indicators:
- Detection and analysis of the characteristics of vulnerable and resilient areas in the study areas (M7).
- Obtaining recommendations to improve the territorial resilience of areas identified as vulnerable and proposal for their integration into OT plans (M8).
- Means of verification:
- Attribute table with the characteristics of vulnerable and resilient areas and their values (vector file) (M7).
- Report with the result of the analysis of the most relevant characteristics of vulnerable and resilient areas (document) (M7).
- Report with recommendations to improve the territorial resilience of areas identified as vulnerable and proposals for integration into OT plans (doc.) (M8).
- Indicators:
- Form a Territory Observatory that allows both access (cartographic base) and interaction (evolution graphs and analysis) with the information generated in the project for the four study cities. This objective will be developed from month six to month ten of the project.
- Indicators:
- Design and development of the “Territory Observatory” (hereinafter, OdT), a cartographic platform (information layers) and thematic platform (evolution graphs and analysis) with free access, where the results of the project will be integrated with the support of external consulting (M9 ).
- Means of verification:
- Web link with access to the OdT (web link) (M9).
- OdT User Manual (document) (M9).
- Report on the development process of the OdT including the contributions derived from the meetings with the public organizations consulted (document) (M9).
- Indicators:
- Deploy a strategy for the dissemination and transfer of project results at a national and international level to position the university as a useful means to increase territorial resilience. This objective will be developed over the 6 months following the closure of the project development phase (in the communication phase).
- Indicators:
- Submission of 4 scientific articles for publication in national/international journals (2 of them in JCR indexed journals) (M10).
- Preparation of reports regarding Technological Surveillance Products and protection analysis, services managed and produced directly by CEDIA (M11).
- A CEDIA website is designed and created to disseminate the main results of the project with the support of CEDIA for the creation of communication products. Additionally, the dissemination of these results, as well as the intermediate milestones reached in the project, are also published on the RIGTIG website (https://gis.uazuay.edu.ec/rigtig/) as well as on the web pages of the different institutions participating in the project (M12).
- Representatives of some of the IES attend the CEDIA congress (M13).
- Some results are included in the master's/doctoral thesis (M14).
- Preparation of teaching materials and holding awareness talks in schools with the purpose of increasing the level of information and the resilience of the population to the effects of climate change in the territory (M15).
- Preparation of materials and conducting a webinar to explain the use of the OdT and the QGIS plugin and emphasize the importance of analysis from a QC perspective (M16).
- Holding a results dissemination day where interested institutions and users will be preferred guests. (M17).
- Means of verification:
- Digital copy of each article, submission record and DOI (if available) (document and web link) (M10).
- Technological Surveillance and protection potential reports generated by CEDIA (documents) (M11).
- Access link to the project website at CEDIA (web link) (M12).
- Links to websites where project results are published (links) (M12)
- Accreditation of attendance at the congress (M13).
- List of master's/doctoral theses that include results derived from this project and description of the content included in each case (document) (M14).
- PDF document with the teaching materials prepared for holding awareness talks in schools and a commitment signed with a school to hold the talks (M15).
- Didactic materials used to carry out the webinar on the use of the OdT and the QGIS plugin and list of attendees (M16).
- Materials used in the dissemination sessions and list of attendees (M17).
- Indicators:
Although the project can be considered ambitious, it should be taken into account that the diversity of participating entities, and the multidisciplinarity of the research team and fundamentally, their history as members of RIGTIG (Research Network on Territorial Management and Geospatial Information Technologies) , guarantees the achievement of the described objectives, the execution of the tasks (Txx) (see details in the Methodology section) and the achievement of the results (Vxx) (see details in the Specific Objectives / Means of Verification section).
Participating Institutions:
UDA, PUCE, UCSG, UIDE, UTPL, ESPE, ULE.
Participants:
Project Director Víctor Omar Delgado Inga
- Teresa Emilia Pérez de Murzi
- Diego Francisco Pacheco Prado
- Alicia Monserrath Mejía Salazar
- Verónica Alexandra Muñoz Sotomayor
- Ivonne María González Coronel
- Priscila Amalia González Briceño
- Wilman Gonzalo Merino Vivanco
- Rodolfo Jaime Salazar Martínez
- Sandra Buján Seoane
- Iván Israel Mogrovejo Barrera
- Diana Estefanía Inga Zumba
- Javier Andrés García Galarza
- Geovanny William Ugsha Chusin
- Juan Carlos Pindo Macas
- Andrea Vanessa Ramón Bustamante
Awarded budget: $49530,00
Project status: In process
