Executive Summary: The determinants of global changes are: the decline of biodiversity, changes in atmospheric composition, changes in land cover and changes in climate. Of these factors, the last two are the most important in Andean basins, since they can trigger hydroclimatic extremes and cause negative impacts on the population.
Although there are numerous previous studies on the impacts of land use change and climate change separately, there are few investigations that analyze these impacts caused jointly by the two changes in the future. At the regional level and specifically in Andean basins there is very little literature on comprehensive assessments of future threats such as droughts and floods caused by the interaction of future changes such as land cover and its socioeconomic causality of the population, and changes in climate. This project aims to improve the understanding of the patterns of these changes and link this knowledge with future hazards and threats that may put the population at risk. This approach will be applied in the Tomebamba river basin, located in the southern Ecuadorian Andes, hoping to obtain results that can be used for decision-making in the basin that will promote the construction of policies to prepare for potential threats and adapt to them. future changes. The change in coverage in the study area will be evaluated based on historical geographic information and the changes will be analyzed temporarily through a stochastic model and a distribution model of land use dynamics where the socioeconomic reality of the land would be incorporated. the population and its link with the territorial dynamics in a basin. The climate change scenarios will be determined by means of the outputs of the regional climate model of the Third National Communication of the Ministry of the Environment, applying a scale reduction at the level of meteorological stations. The climate projections will be developed with two emission scenarios from an optimistic and pessimistic perspective. The projection period will be 30 years. A hydrological modeling will be carried out where the different scenarios of changes in land use and climate change are incorporated and combined. The model will be calibrated in the present and through the future scenarios the hydrological projections will be obtained that will allow the analysis of the threats of droughts and floods to be carried out. The development of the hydraulic modeling for floods will be carried out with two-dimensional tools and its development will be focused on the middle and lower part of the basin (urban area) where the probable future flood zones will be obtained. Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts in the basin will be carried out through standardized indices where the frequency, duration, severity and persistence of the threat in the future will be characterized. All the results and cartographic production of the project will be exposed and open to the public through an informative and interactive platform taking advantage of CEDIA 's technological resources.
Objectives General: Evaluate the effects of socioeconomic activities on land use change and climate change on threats to floods and droughts in the Tomebamba river basin.
Specific objectives:
- Build scenarios of change in land cover and vegetation cover by analyzing their biophysical, socio-environmental and economic causality.
INDICATOR: Two probable future scenarios of land use and land cover change.
MEANS OF VERIFICATION: Cartographic products with land use and cover projections available on the Web page created for the project.
ASSUMPTED: The actors of the basin collaborate with the gathering of information. - Generate future climate projections using scenarios with an optimistic and pessimistic outlook for greenhouse gas emissions.
INDICATOR: Two probable future scenarios of climate change
MEANS OF VERIFICATION: Results of climate projections available on the Web page created for the project
ASSUMPTED: The information, tools, equipment, and adequate programs are available for the generation of climate projections. - Project the hydrological regimes of the basin due to changes in land use patterns and incorporating climate projections.
INDICATOR: An analysis of the future hydrological response due to the interaction of changes in land cover and climate.
MEANS OF VERIFICATION: Results of future hydrological projections available on the Web page created for the project
ASSUMPTED: The information, tools, equipment and adequate programs are available for the generation of hydrological projections. - Analyze the future threat of floods and droughts in the basin through hydrological projections.
INDICATOR: Two evaluations of threats of droughts and floods generated based on the results of hydrological projections.
MEANS OF VERIFICATION: Cartographic products with the zoning of probable floods and droughts available on the Web page created for the project
ASSUMPTED: The information, tools, equipment, and adequate programs are available for the mapping of threats.
Participating Institutions:
UC, UDA, UCACUE.
Participants:
Project director Alex Manuel Avilés Añazco.
- Alex Manuel Aviles Añazco
- Alexandra Elizabeth Guanuchi Quito
- Victor Omar Delgado Inga
- Jheimy Lorena Pacheco Nivelo
- Diego Francisco Pacheco Prado
- Mario Zenon Merchan Barros
- Carlos Marcelo Matovelle Bustos
- Cristian Arturo Vintimilla Ochoa
- Paula Milena Cordero Cueva
- Miriam Socorro Reibán León
Awarded budget: $53268
Project status: Signing of agreements.
